I thought about how to make this week’s post interactive, so I thought this might be interesting, part of this was taken from an on-line discussion I was recently introduced to on Facebook, so I decided to repost the following question to you all and get your thoughts and comments…
Also, courtesy of Last Call Poker League, I thought I would re-post this handy outs/odds chart for your viewing pleasure.
Blinds are 500/1000, table is 7 handed, you limp in early position with AcTc (clubs), everyone else folds except the two blinds leaving 3,000 chips in the middle. The flop comes out Jc6c2s (for the purposes of this quiz we are not calculating any type of implied odds or the stack the SB has behind).
- How many outs could we have?
- How many outs should we count on?
- What is our percentage to win the hand at this point?
- The SB leads out with a bet on that flop and the BB folds.
- What is the maximum bet we should call and still have the proper pot odds to call?
Please post your answers, or discussion points…
Can we talk about how terrible limping UTG with AcTc is first?
1. We could have 15 outs, if SB is leading out with something like middle pair or an underpair to the jacks.
2. We likely have 12 outs, with a weak jack in the SB being a possibility, like J9 or J8, so pairing our 10 would not put us in the lead but I’m going to assume an A will be good so I’m counting those 3 outs. We also have a back door straight draw that is too negligible to count.
3. Between 35 – 45%, depending on whether pairing our A will put us ahead or not.
4. Let’s be conservative and go with 35%. So, if the SB bets 1600 we are getting the right odds to call the 4600 pot. If we count the 3 aces as outs too, we can now call around 2500 into a 5500 pot and we will still be getting the right odds.
Averaging the 2 values, we should call up to about 2000 on the flop, which is what my gut told me before running the numbers.
Without stack sizes and a count of the number of beers in our system, that’s the best I can do.
Excellent response, kinda matched my gut as well. Even after running the real numbers, I don’t think that I would call anywhere close to a pot-sized bet, unless the player was super loose and agressive. Even then it’s a tough call if it’s a significant amount of my stack, but then again, why would I have limped with A-10, better to push pre-flop… But I didn’t make up the scenario, we just ended up here to start with
Here’s my Response to the Quiz itself:
1 – I counted 15 pure outs including: the 9 remaining clubs, 3 10′s, and 3 aces, there is also a remote possibility that you could back-door a Q or K which gives you 8 more outs… So MAX of 23 outs on the flop
2 – I usually discount 2 clubs being used and at least an Ace, so I would count on 13 outs
3 – With 13 outs, I’m 48% to win with 2 cards to come, and 28% to win after the turn
4 – Purely mathmatical, the most you should call is $3000/1.1 = $2700 (rounded) or a pot size bet…
In actuality, I would check the flop and hope to get a free card… Body language would read into this a lot, if it was a quick check on the flop, I might try a semi-bluff value bet of $1500 on the turn and try to take it down there, if he calls let’s see how the river looks… If I’m raised, it depends on the raise and my chip stack compared to theirs.
SB bets, you shove…no brainer.
Bluff, thanks for the comment: Do you do shove regardless of whether it’s a tournament or cash game? Regardless of whether it’s your tournament life at stake if they have you dominated?
This is why limping utg is bad imo and stack sizes are key. Don’t really like to call, but Ok I’d call around 1,500. If sb seems week raise his bet, re-evaluate turn.
still lots of variables, including “do feel gambling?”